France’s gambling regulator, the Autorité Nationale des Jeux (ANJ), has ordered access to Polymarket blocked after determining the blockchain-based prediction market operates as an unlicensed betting service. The decision stands as one of the sharpest European regulatory moves against the growing prediction market sector.
France Takes Action Against Polymarket
The ANJ found that Polymarket operates without the licenses required to offer betting services to French residents. French authorities directed internet service providers to block the platform under existing laws that restrict unlicensed gambling operations.
The move fits a broader pattern of European regulators examining whether prediction markets fall under established gambling frameworks.
How Polymarket Works
Polymarket is a blockchain-based prediction market where users buy and sell shares tied to the outcomes of real-world events. Topics range from political elections and economic indicators to cultural and scientific developments.
Prices fluctuate based on market sentiment and perceived probability. Holders of the correct outcome receive payouts when an event resolves.
The platform drew significant attention during the 2024 U.S. presidential election cycle, when its markets attracted millions of dollars in trading volume and became a widely cited gauge of public sentiment on political races.
Why France Acted
French gambling law requires operators to hold specific licenses before offering betting services to residents. Polymarket does not hold an ANJ license.
The regulator classifies prediction markets where users stake money on event outcomes as gambling. Under that interpretation, Polymarket’s operations in France violate laws restricting unlicensed platforms.
French authorities have used the same ISP-blocking mechanism before against offshore sportsbooks and online casinos operating without local licenses.
Regulatory Pressure Builds Across Borders
France is not alone in scrutinizing prediction markets. Regulators in several jurisdictions have raised questions about how these platforms should be classified.
In the United States, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has been locked in ongoing disputes over the sector. Kalshi, a U.S.-based prediction market, won a federal court ruling in 2024 that upheld its right to offer election-related contracts. But the broader regulatory picture remains unsettled.
The European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation took full effect in late 2024. It primarily covers cryptocurrency tokens and exchanges, but does not explicitly address prediction markets. That gap leaves individual EU member states to apply their own gambling or financial rules to platforms like Polymarket.
French users may now find Polymarket blocked by their ISPs. The effectiveness of such blocks varies, as some users may attempt to bypass restrictions through VPNs or similar tools.
Polymarket has faced access restrictions elsewhere. The platform previously blocked U.S.-based users from its main interface, though enforcing geographic restrictions on decentralized platforms remains difficult.
For Polymarket, the French ban is both a market access setback and a signal that European regulators may increasingly treat prediction markets as gambling operations subject to full licensing requirements.
What Comes Next
The French decision could shape how other EU member states approach prediction markets. Regulatory clarity across much of Europe remains limited, leaving platforms and users in uncertain territory.
As prediction markets grow in popularity and trading volume, operators face a patchwork of national regulations that complicates cross-border activity. Maintaining legal access across Europe may require obtaining licenses in multiple jurisdictions.
