IG Group is preparing to enter the UK prediction markets sector after announcing a proposed $1.1 billion acquisition of US operator Underdog and applying for a betting license from the UK Gambling Commission. The FTSE 100 company outlined its plans at an October 22 Capital Markets Event, with an initial product launch targeted for the fourth quarter of 2026 and a broader consumer offering planned for early 2027.
IG Consumer, the company’s retail investing division, will lead the expansion. Its chief executive, Michael Healy, told investors that IG sees “strong appetite for prediction markets in the UK” and intends to bring prediction markets, cryptocurrency and traditional trading products together on a proprietary platform.
The strategy reflects IG’s efforts to expand beyond its established trading and investing services into event-based products that allow customers to take positions on real-world outcomes.
Underdog Acquisition Supports Prediction Markets Expansion
IG announced its proposed acquisition of Underdog, a US fantasy sports and prediction markets operator, in July 2026. The transaction carries an upfront enterprise value of approximately $1.1 billion, with a potential additional $200 million earnout.
The acquisition has not yet been completed, with closing expected in late 2026 or early 2027.
Underdog offers prediction products across 46 US states, providing IG with access to an established US customer base and experience in event-based trading.
IG expects to draw on the expertise of Underdog founder Jeremy Levine and his team as it develops its prediction markets business.
“Trading, investing and entertainment are converging, and IG is well placed to capitalize on the opportunity,” said IG Group chief executive Breon Corcoran at the Capital Markets Event.
IG is targeting an initial prediction markets launch in the fourth quarter of 2026, followed by an expansion into consumer-focused markets covering politics, entertainment and sports in early 2027.
The company also plans a UK marketing campaign built around helping customers “trade better.” Advertising is expected to begin in November, including placements on Sky Sports.
IG Applies for UK Gambling Commission License
IG submitted an application for a betting license to the UK Gambling Commission approximately one week before announcing its prediction markets strategy.
The application indicates that IG is preparing to operate at least part of its planned offering within the UK’s gambling regulatory framework.
This approach differs from the regulatory position adopted by several US prediction markets operators, which classify their products as financial derivatives rather than traditional betting services.
The UK Gambling Commission has previously indicated that prediction markets involving bets on real-world events may fall within its regulatory remit, depending on how the products are structured.
However, IG’s existing financial trading activities are regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), meaning the regulatory treatment of its proposed prediction markets products will depend on their specific characteristics.
The FCA has also indicated that it intends to examine the future regulatory treatment of prediction markets in the UK.
IG has not confirmed that its gambling license application has been approved, and the proposed launch remains subject to applicable regulatory requirements.
Prediction Markets Face Regulatory Uncertainty
IG’s expansion comes as prediction markets face increasing regulatory scrutiny across several jurisdictions.
In the US, operators including Kalshi and Polymarket have argued that their event contracts fall under federal derivatives regulation overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), rather than state gambling laws.
That position has led to disputes with state regulators, particularly over contracts linked to sporting events.
European regulators have generally taken a different approach to event-based betting products. Several authorities have challenged prediction markets platforms operating without local gambling authorization, with some jurisdictions imposing restrictions or blocking access.
These differences highlight the regulatory challenges operators face when expanding prediction markets internationally.
For IG, obtaining the appropriate UK permissions will be an important step in determining which products it can offer and how it can market them to consumers.
IG Continues Broader Business Expansion
Alongside its prediction markets plans, IG reiterated that its proposed redomiciliation to Jersey remains on schedule, with completion expected later in 2026 or early 2027.
The move forms part of the company’s wider corporate strategy as it develops new products and expands its international operations.
IG’s planned entry into UK prediction markets would bring an established financial trading company into a sector currently attracting interest from both gambling operators and financial services businesses.
The timing and scope of the launch will depend on product development, regulatory approvals and the company’s ability to integrate event-based markets into its existing consumer platform.
